Does Anyone Remember PMIs? Michael Every on the Data Illusion Behind Today’s Economy

📖 About This Summary

This article is a summary based on “MacroVoices #505: Michael Every — Does Anyone Remember PMIs?”, edited and annotated by Time Health Capital. It unpacks economist Michael Every’s critique of distorted economic data, the decline of globalization, and the emergence of a more fragmented, state-driven world economy.

“We’ve built a world where the data looks fine — until you try to live in it.”

📉 The Death of Traditional Indicators

Every opens by challenging the relevance of PMIs — once a key gauge of economic momentum. Today, he argues, they no longer measure reality.

• PMIs reflect sentiment, not real output or structural conditions.
• Manufacturing has fragmented globally, making old metrics obsolete.
• Policymakers still rely on them, creating a dangerous illusion of stability.

The economy isn’t cyclical anymore — it’s strategic. What matters now is policy, trade control, and resource security.

🌍 De-Globalization and the Return of Statecraft

Every frames the present moment as the unwinding of a 30-year globalization cycle.

• Supply chains are shifting from efficiency to resilience.
• Nations are prioritizing security and sovereignty over market optimization.
• Industrial policy is returning, not by choice — but by geopolitical necessity.

This shift fundamentally reshapes valuation, capital flows, inflation dynamics, and long-term investment strategy.

“We are witnessing a shift from ‘the market decides’ to ‘the state ensures.’”

💣 The Real Economy Is Shrinking Underneath

While capital markets expand, the real economy deteriorates beneath the surface.

• Productivity stagnation and supply shortages are now structural.
• Monetary easing can inflate prices — but cannot create workers or materials.
• Governments face a trilemma: stabilize inflation, secure resources, or maintain geopolitical power.

Every warns that we have replaced real output with superficial optics — a system that works only until pressure exposes its weaknesses.

📊 Why Inflation Is Here to Stay

Every rejects the notion of “transitory inflation.” Instead, he argues inflation is now structural and strategic.

• Reshoring and supply-chain security increase long-term costs.
• Fiscal spending has overtaken private investment as the growth engine.
• Inflation now stems from politics, demographics, and national security priorities — not monetary cycles.

Central banks cannot fix this, because the root causes are geopolitical, not monetary.

🏦 Currency Wars 2.0

Global monetary policy is shifting from efficiency to control.

• The U.S. and China are engaged in a financial cold war.
• The West weaponizes the dollar via sanctions and capital restrictions.
• Emerging markets explore gold, bilateral trade, and stablecoins as alternatives.

Every stresses that this is not de-dollarization, but the creation of parallel systems — fragmenting and politicizing global finance.

🧭 The Investment Implications

Every’s framework signals a permanent shift in how markets operate.

• Rates and inflation will stay elevated and volatile.
• Real assets and production capacity gain strategic importance.
• Tech and AI become instruments of national power, not just profit.
• Even Treasuries are no longer guaranteed “safe” in a weaponized currency regime.

Investors must rethink risk through the lens of policy, geopolitics, and resource scarcity.

💡 Our Commentary / What It Means for Us

At Time Health Capital, we view Every’s analysis not as doom, but as strategic clarity. The global economy is being rewritten around security, resource control, and state influence — and investors must adapt accordingly.

• Passive investing is losing power; policy-aware investing is the new edge.
• Value will concentrate in sectors tied to energy, defense, and technological autonomy.
• Investors who anticipate constraints — rather than chase narratives — will lead the next cycle.

❓ Questions & Implications for Readers

• How can investors navigate a world where economic data no longer reflects reality?
• What does diversification mean in a multi-currency, multi-system global environment?
• Can policymakers manage the geopolitical costs of economic fragmentation without triggering deeper instability?

🎥 Prefer to Watch the Full Discussion?

Watch the original MacroVoices interview here:

MacroVoices #505 — Michael Every